Scottish businesses are outperforming the UK average on confidence, investment and export activity, according to the latest Barclays Business Prosperity Index — even as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on firms across the country.
The Q1 2026 index, developed with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), shows that 85% of Scottish businesses are confident about their prospects over the next five years, compared with 80% nationally. Scottish firms also report stronger confidence in the UK economy (63% versus 57% nationally), as well as the European (71% versus 65%) and global (68% versus 57%) economic outlook.
Investing in the fundamentals
Scottish businesses are more likely than their UK counterparts to be directing capital into core growth drivers. Some 41% are investing in digital products and subscriptions (versus 34% UK-wide), 38% in training and development of staff (versus 36%), and 37% in research and development (versus 34%).
Scotland’s firms are also more outward-looking, with 49% reporting increased export activity compared with 41% across the UK as a whole.
Jamie Grant, MD of Barclays Corporate Bank, Scotland, said: “Scottish businesses are showing impressive resilience in the face of a complex global economic backdrop.
“What stands out is the strength of confidence and that businesses are continuing to invest in the fundamentals of long-term growth, including skills, innovation and digital capability.
“While challenges remain, particularly in translating that investment into productivity gains, Scottish firms are well placed to navigate uncertainty and seize future opportunities. Through the £22bn Barclays Business Prosperity Fund, we’re able to support businesses to invest in resilience and growth.”
Cybersecurity climbs the boardroom agenda
The research also highlights a growing focus on cyber resilience. Some 35% of Scottish businesses expect to increase cybersecurity investment in the next 12 months — notably higher than the 27% UK average — while 23% have already increased investment since the start of 2026. Meanwhile, 31% say they are confident in their ability to respond to a major cyber incident.
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The findings come against a backdrop of broader geopolitical pressure, with 80% of UK businesses reporting that the conflict in the Middle East has had a negative impact on them.
The Barclays Business Prosperity Index is based on a survey of 1,000 senior business decision-makers conducted by Opinium between 17 April and 5 May 2026, alongside a survey of 500 B2B leaders conducted by Focaldata between 27 April and 1 May 2026.
